The World Bank said on 11 June 2024 that the global economy was expected to stabilise for the first time in three years, but at a level that remained weak by recent historical standards. Its Global Economic Prospects release projected global growth of 2.6% in 2024 and an average of 2.7% in 2025–26. The figures were also covered in Anadolu’s report published that day.
Stability is not a return to the previous trend
The forecast was steady rather than strong. The Bank compared the projected pace with a 3.1% average in the decade before COVID-19 and said that countries accounting for more than 80% of the world’s population and global GDP would still be growing more slowly during 2024–26 than in that earlier period. In other words, the absence of another global slowdown did not erase the loss of momentum.
Developing economies were projected to grow by 4% on average in 2024–25, slightly below their 2023 pace. Low-income economies were expected to accelerate from 3.8% in 2023 to 5% in 2024, although the Bank said three out of every four low-income economies had seen their 2024 forecasts downgraded since January.
Inflation keeps the policy channel cautious
Global inflation was projected to moderate to 3.5% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. The decline was slower than the Bank had expected six months earlier. That meant central banks could remain cautious about lowering interest rates, while global rates in 2025–26 were expected to average about 4%, roughly twice the 2000–19 average.
- Global growth forecast for 2024: 2.6%.
- Average global growth forecast for 2025–26: 2.7%.
- Developing-economy growth forecast for 2024–25: 4% on average.
- Global inflation forecast: 3.5% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025.
Why the headline hides different constraints
The Bank highlighted debt-service pressures, narrower trade opportunities and costly climate events for the poorest economies. It also said one in four developing economies was expected to remain poorer in 2024 than in 2019. Those findings make the global average a starting point rather than a description of a typical country.
The release also pointed to public investment as a possible lever for private investment and described fiscal difficulties in small states. These were policy findings within the report, not guarantees that every additional dollar of public spending would produce the same result. The historical bulletin therefore carried two messages: global growth was becoming more stable, but the quality and distribution of that stability remained the central economic question.
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